Piast Gliwice 2-3 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 49% as Piast Gliwice take on Raków Częstochowa.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa meet at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 July 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 0.57 xG and Raków Częstochowa 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.579 / away 0.610. Data: 0 Piast Gliwice games / 0 Raków Częstochowa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 24% | Draw 49% | Raków Częstochowa 26%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 4.17 | Draw 2.04 | Raków Częstochowa 3.85. The draw (49%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 11% | BTTS probability 23% | Total xG 1.16. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 89% probability — total xG of 1.16 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 77% — Piast Gliwice's lower xG of 0.57 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 23%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 49% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 24% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 11% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jul 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 24% | Draw 49% | Raków Częstochowa 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 11% | BTTS 23% | xG Piast Gliwice 0.57 / Raków Częstochowa 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.579 / away 0.610 • Poisson stance: Draw (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.57
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Raków Częstochowa xG
23%
BTTS
36%
Over 1.5
11%
Over 2.5
3%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 25 July 2021 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Piast Gliwice 2 - 3 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 24% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 26% chance, and a 49% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 23% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 11%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.57. Flip it around — Raków Częstochowa's attack (0.85x) against Piast Gliwice's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.60.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 32.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (17.3%), 1-0 (16.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 66% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
24%
4.09
49%
2.04
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
31.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.6%
Away win
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.57
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
1.16
0.60
Raków Częstochowa xG
4.09
24%
Home win
2.04
49%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
32%
Over 1.5
3.12
68%
Under 1.5
1.47
11%
Over 2.5
9.09
89%
Under 2.5
1.12
3%
Over 3.5
33.33
97%
Under 3.5
1.03
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
23%
BTTS Yes
4.43
77%
BTTS No
1.29
Clean Sheet
55%
1.81
57%
1.76
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
15%
6.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 31.3 | 18.6 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 10.6 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 32.7%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 0.57 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 0.60 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 1.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Pre-Season
Raków Częstochowa
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 0-3 on 8 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Piast Gliwice have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Raków Częstochowa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Piast Gliwice
0
Draws
7
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 3, Raków Częstochowa have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Piast Gliwice 1-3 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Raków Częstochowa edge out Piast Gliwice 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Piast Gliwice 2-3 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 0.57 xG and Raków Częstochowa 0.60 xG, a combined 1.16. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Piast Gliwice beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Raków Częstochowa outscored their 0.60 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 24% | Draw 49% | Raków Częstochowa 26%, with the draw its most likely call at 49%. The actual Raków Częstochowa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 11%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 36% and landed. Over 3.5 was 3% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 23% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.