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Stalemate at Piast Gliwice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Piast Gliwice and Radomiak Radom finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.37 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.46 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Piast Gliwice fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Radomiak Radom landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.80 / defence 1.05 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.11 / defence 1.09, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 35% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 40%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 34%, Radomiak Radom 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.27 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights