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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Piast Gliwice cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Nieciecza.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Piast Gliwice beat Nieciecza 4-2 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 0.97 xG and Nieciecza 0.96 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Piast Gliwice beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nieciecza outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.77 / defence 0.83 against Nieciecza attack 0.97 / defence 0.84, drawn from 41/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 34% | Draw 33% | Nieciecza 33%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 22% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 11%, Nieciecza 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Nieciecza's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 0.78 PPG, Nieciecza 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nieciecza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights