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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Piast Gliwice cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Legia Warszawa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Piast Gliwice beat Legia Warszawa 2-0 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Regular Season - 18, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.16 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.15 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Piast Gliwice beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Legia Warszawa landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.70 / defence 1.00 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.94 / defence 1.01, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 34% | Draw 33% | Legia Warszawa 33%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 37%, Legia Warszawa 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.20 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights