Piast Gliwice vs Lech Poznan – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Piast Gliwice's attack rating (0.99) and Lech Poznan's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lech Poznan's attack (1.02x) against Piast Gliwice's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
32%
3.10
26%
3.89
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.69
1.45
Lech Poznan xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
8%
13.24
12%
8.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.45 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.