Piast Gliwice 0-0 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lech Poznan (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Piast Gliwice face Lech Poznan.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski plays host to Piast Gliwice versus Lech Poznan in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Friday 29 November 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Piast Gliwice have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's home record at Stadion Miejski: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Piast Gliwice are significantly better at Stadion Miejski than their overall form suggests.
Lech Poznan (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Lech Poznan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Lech Poznan have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Lech Poznan are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Piast Gliwice 1W, Lech Poznan 3W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with Piast Gliwice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Piast Gliwice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Lech Poznan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 46% versus Lech Poznan 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Piast Gliwice 32% | Lech Poznan 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.24 xG and Lech Poznan 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.995 / defence 1.170 | Lech Poznan attack 1.019 / defence 0.843. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.218. Data: 50 Piast Gliwice games / 50 Lech Poznan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 32% | Draw 26% | Lech Poznan 42%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Lech Poznan 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lech Poznan as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lech Poznan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Piast Gliwice 50% | Lech Poznan 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Friday 29 Nov 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 32% | Draw 26% | Lech Poznan 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.24 / Lech Poznan 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.995 / def 1.170 | Lech Poznan attack 1.019 / def 0.843 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Lech Poznan xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 29 November 2024 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Lech Poznan?
Piast Gliwice 0 - 0 Lech Poznan.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Lech Poznan part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Lech Poznan is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 32% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Lech Poznan will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Lech Poznan?
Record (5 meetings): Piast Gliwice 1W | Draws 1 | Lech Poznan 3W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Lech Poznan in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Lech Poznan (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Piast Gliwice's attack rating (0.99) and Lech Poznan's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lech Poznan's attack (1.02x) against Piast Gliwice's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
32%
3.10
26%
3.89
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.69
1.45
Lech Poznan xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
8%
13.24
12%
8.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.45 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Piast Gliwice's recent record stands at 14W 21D 15L from 50 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lech Poznan, meanwhile, have gone 26W 12D 12L across 50 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Lech Poznan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lech Poznan by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Piast Gliwice heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Piast Gliwice have managed 9W 10D 5L from 24 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lech Poznan's away record stands at 9W 8D 7L across 24 trips, a 1.46 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 1.58 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Lech Poznan in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 14W 21D 15L in their last 50 games (1.26 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 26W 12D 12L in their last 50 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Lech Poznan away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.54 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Lech Poznan go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lech Poznan won 3-0 on 15 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Piast Gliwice have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lech Poznan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Piast Gliwice
2
Draws
6
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Lech Poznan?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 2, Lech Poznan have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Lech Poznan last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Lech Poznan 3-0 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 50%, Lech Poznan 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Piast Gliwice) and 46% (Lech Poznan).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Lech Poznan in 38%; Lech Poznan in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Lech Poznan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 50% of Lech Poznan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Lech Poznan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 46% of Lech Poznan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Lech Poznan tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Lech Poznan in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Piast Gliwice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 17, as Piast Gliwice and Lech Poznan drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.24 xG and Lech Poznan 1.45 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Piast Gliwice fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Lech Poznan landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.99 / defence 1.17 against Lech Poznan attack 1.02 / defence 0.84, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 32% | Draw 26% | Lech Poznan 42%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 32%, Lech Poznan 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.