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Stalemate at Piast Gliwice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Piast Gliwice and Korona Kielce finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.27 xG and Korona Kielce 0.94 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Piast Gliwice fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Korona Kielce landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.89 / defence 1.01 against Korona Kielce attack 0.79 / defence 0.87, drawn from 45/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 43% | Draw 31% | Korona Kielce 27%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 36%, Korona Kielce 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Korona Kielce's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.16 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights