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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Piast Gliwice cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Gornik Zabrze.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Piast Gliwice beat Gornik Zabrze 2-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.00 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.00 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Piast Gliwice beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gornik Zabrze landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.72 / defence 0.94 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.83 / defence 0.90, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 34% | Draw 31% | Gornik Zabrze 35%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Piast Gliwice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 35%, Gornik Zabrze 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.29 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights