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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Wisla Plock cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Nieciecza.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wisla Plock beat Nieciecza 1-3 at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nieciecza 1.24 xG and Wisla Plock 1.20 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Wisla Plock outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nieciecza attack 0.88 / defence 1.30 against Wisla Plock attack 0.84 / defence 0.98, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nieciecza 36% | Draw 29% | Wisla Plock 35%, with Nieciecza to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Wisla Plock win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nieciecza 50%, Wisla Plock 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nieciecza's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Wisla Plock's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nieciecza (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights