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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Widzew Łódź cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Nieciecza.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Widzew Łódź beat Nieciecza 2-4 at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza, Regular Season - 11, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nieciecza 1.36 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.71 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Widzew Łódź outscored their 1.71 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nieciecza attack 0.76 / defence 1.44 against Widzew Łódź attack 1.00 / defence 1.16, drawn from 10/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nieciecza 30% | Draw 25% | Widzew Łódź 45%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nieciecza 40%, Widzew Łódź 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nieciecza's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nieciecza 0.90 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Widzew Łódź win broke the near-deadlock. Nieciecza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights