Nieciecza 1-0 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Nieciecza take on Warta Poznań.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 24 as Nieciecza welcome Warta Poznań to Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nieciecza stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nieciecza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nieciecza's home record at Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Warta Poznań — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Warta Poznań have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Warta Poznań are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Nieciecza, 0 for Warta Poznań and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Nieciecza trading profile (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Warta Poznań trading profile (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nieciecza 68% versus Warta Poznań 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nieciecza 59% | Warta Poznań 23%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nieciecza 1.03 xG and Warta Poznań 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nieciecza attack 0.935 / defence 1.276 | Warta Poznań attack 0.752 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.099 / away 1.092. Data: 22 Nieciecza games / 23 Warta Poznań games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nieciecza 33% | Draw 34% | Warta Poznań 33%. Fair-value odds: Nieciecza 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Warta Poznań 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Nieciecza 80% | Warta Poznań 20%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nieciecza vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nieciecza 33% | Draw 34% | Warta Poznań 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Nieciecza 1.03 / Warta Poznań 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Nieciecza attack 0.935 / def 1.276 | Warta Poznań attack 0.752 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.099 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Nieciecza xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Warta Poznań xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nieciecza vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Nieciecza vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica.
What was the final score in Nieciecza vs Warta Poznań?
Nieciecza 1 - 0 Warta Poznań.
Where is Nieciecza vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica.
What competition is Nieciecza vs Warta Poznań part of?
Nieciecza vs Warta Poznań is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Nieciecza vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Nieciecza a 33% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Nieciecza vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Nieciecza and Warta Poznań will score (BTTS).
Will Nieciecza vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nieciecza and Warta Poznań?
Record (1 meetings): Nieciecza 0W | Draws 1 | Warta Poznań 0W.
What form are Nieciecza and Warta Poznań in?
Nieciecza (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Warta Poznań (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nieciecza's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Warta Poznań's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Warta Poznań's attack versus Nieciecza's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.07
34%
2.93
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Nieciecza xG
Total xG
2.08
1.05
Warta Poznań xG
3.07
33%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
11%
8.76
12%
8.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nieciecza vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Nieciecza and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Nieciecza and 1.05 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Nieciecza vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nieciecza's recent record stands at 4W 7D 11L from 22 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Nieciecza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Warta Poznań, meanwhile, have gone 5W 8D 9L across 22 games — 1.05 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nieciecza on 0.86 PPG, Warta Poznań on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nieciecza have managed 3W 3D 4L from 10 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Warta Poznań's away record stands at 3W 2D 5L across 10 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Nieciecza are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 0.82 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nieciecza have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nieciecza
Blended
Warta Poznań
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nieciecza and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Nieciecza have gone 4W 7D 11L in their last 22 games (0.86 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 5W 8D 9L in their last 22 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nieciecza at home or Warta Poznań away?
Nieciecza's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nieciecza at home: 1.20 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nieciecza and Warta Poznań runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Nieciecza
1
Draws
0
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nieciecza and Warta Poznań?
From 2 meetings on record, Nieciecza have won 1, Warta Poznań have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nieciecza and Warta Poznań last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2022, when Nieciecza 1-0 Warta Poznań.
Who has won more matches between Nieciecza and Warta Poznań?
Nieciecza have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nieciecza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Warta Poznań see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nieciecza 80%, Warta Poznań 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Nieciecza) and 20% (Warta Poznań).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nieciecza home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nieciecza play Warta Poznań?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of Nieciecza's recent matches and 20% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nieciecza vs Warta Poznań usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Nieciecza's recent games and 20% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nieciecza and Warta Poznań tend to score early?
Nieciecza have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Warta Poznań in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nieciecza defy the odds to beat Warta Poznań 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nieciecza beat Warta Poznań 1-0 at Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nieciecza 1.03 xG and Warta Poznań 1.05 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Warta Poznań landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nieciecza attack 0.94 / defence 1.28 against Warta Poznań attack 0.75 / defence 1.01, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nieciecza 33% | Draw 34% | Warta Poznań 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Nieciecza win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nieciecza 59%, Warta Poznań 23%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nieciecza's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nieciecza 0.86 PPG, Warta Poznań 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nieciecza win broke the near-deadlock. Nieciecza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.