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Shock result as Nieciecza defy the odds to beat Piast Gliwice 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nieciecza beat Piast Gliwice 3-2 at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nieciecza 1.09 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.68 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Nieciecza beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nieciecza attack 0.75 / defence 1.29 against Piast Gliwice attack 1.20 / defence 1.03, drawn from 26/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nieciecza 24% | Draw 27% | Piast Gliwice 50%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Nieciecza win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nieciecza 50%, Piast Gliwice 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nieciecza's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Piast Gliwice arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Nieciecza winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nieciecza (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights