🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Legia Warszawa edge out Nieciecza 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Legia Warszawa beat Nieciecza 0-1 at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nieciecza 1.34 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.55 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nieciecza fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nieciecza attack 0.88 / defence 1.42 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.98 / defence 1.06, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nieciecza 31% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 41%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nieciecza 55%, Legia Warszawa 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nieciecza's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nieciecza 0.90 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Nieciecza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights