🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant GKS Katowice run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Nieciecza.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GKS Katowice beat Nieciecza 0-3 at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nieciecza 1.53 xG and GKS Katowice 2.13 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Nieciecza fell 1.5 short of their projected output. GKS Katowice outscored their 2.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nieciecza attack 0.78 / defence 1.57 against GKS Katowice attack 1.16 / defence 1.19, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nieciecza 27% | Draw 22% | GKS Katowice 51%, with GKS Katowice to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nieciecza 46%, GKS Katowice 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nieciecza's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

GKS Katowice's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nieciecza 0.77 PPG, GKS Katowice 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GKS Katowice win broke the near-deadlock. Nieciecza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights