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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Motor Lublin defy the odds to beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Motor Lublin beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 at Motor Lublin Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.46 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.66 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Zaglebie Lubin landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 0.98 / defence 1.36 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.96 / defence 0.96, drawn from 32/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 34% | Draw 24% | Zaglebie Lubin 42%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Motor Lublin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 56%, Zaglebie Lubin 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Motor Lublin's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Motor Lublin 1.34 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Motor Lublin win broke the near-deadlock. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights