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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Motor Lublin run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Widzew Łódź.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Motor Lublin beat Widzew Łódź 3-0 at Motor Lublin Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.57 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.94 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Motor Lublin beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Widzew Łódź landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 0.83 / defence 1.34 against Widzew Łódź attack 1.18 / defence 1.14, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 31% | Draw 23% | Widzew Łódź 46%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Motor Lublin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 53%, Widzew Łódź 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Motor Lublin's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Motor Lublin 1.33 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Motor Lublin win broke the near-deadlock. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights