Motor Lublin vs Radomiak Radom – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Motor Lublin edge out Radomiak Radom 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Motor Lublin beat Radomiak Radom 1-0 at Arena Lublin, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.54 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.41 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Radomiak Radom landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 1.03 / defence 1.26 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.90 / defence 1.01, drawn from 16/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 41% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 35%, with Motor Lublin to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 50%, Radomiak Radom 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Motor Lublin's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Motor Lublin arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights