Motor Lublin 4-2 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Motor Lublin at 39%, yet in-form Pogon Szczecin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pogon Szczecin make the trip to Arena Lublin to face Motor Lublin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 November 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Motor Lublin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Motor Lublin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Motor Lublin's home record at Arena Lublin: 2W 2D 3L from 7 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game.
Pogon Szczecin (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Pogon Szczecin have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Pogon Szczecin are 0.70 PPG clear of Motor Lublin in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.80 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Motor Lublin — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Motor Lublin 46% versus Pogon Szczecin 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Motor Lublin 38% | Pogon Szczecin 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Motor Lublin 1.34 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Motor Lublin attack 0.846 / defence 1.275 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.830 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.184. Data: 13 Motor Lublin games / 47 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Motor Lublin 39% | Draw 26% | Pogon Szczecin 35%. Fair-value odds: Motor Lublin 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Pogon Szczecin 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Motor Lublin at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pogon Szczecin (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Motor Lublin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Motor Lublin 43% | Pogon Szczecin 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Arena Lublin • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Motor Lublin 39% | Draw 26% | Pogon Szczecin 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Motor Lublin 1.34 / Pogon Szczecin 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Motor Lublin attack 0.846 / def 1.275 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.830 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Motor Lublin (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Motor Lublin xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Pogon Szczecin xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Arena Lublin.
What was the final score in Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Motor Lublin 4 - 2 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lublin.
What competition is Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Motor Lublin a 39% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Motor Lublin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Motor Lublin and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Motor Lublin and Pogon Szczecin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Motor Lublin and Pogon Szczecin in?
Motor Lublin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Motor Lublin's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Pogon Szczecin's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (0.83x) against Motor Lublin's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 13/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Motor Lublin Win
39%
2.58
26%
3.79
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Motor Lublin xG
Total xG
2.59
1.25
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
11%
9.02
9%
10.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Motor Lublin and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Motor Lublin and 1.25 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Motor Lublin's recent record stands at 4W 3D 6L from 13 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Motor Lublin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pogon Szczecin, meanwhile, have gone 7W 1D 5L across 13 games — 1.69 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pogon Szczecin by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Motor Lublin heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Motor Lublin have managed 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pogon Szczecin's away record stands at 0W 1D 5L across 6 trips, a 0.17 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pogon Szczecin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Motor Lublin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Motor Lublin are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.46 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Pogon Szczecin in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Motor Lublin
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Motor Lublin and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Motor Lublin have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 games (1.15 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 7W 1D 5L in their last 13 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Motor Lublin at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Motor Lublin's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Motor Lublin at home: 1.33 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 0.17 PPG.
Have Motor Lublin or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Motor Lublin have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 3-0 on 14 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Motor Lublin have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Motor Lublin
0
Draws
2
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Motor Lublin and Pogon Szczecin?
From 4 meetings on record, Motor Lublin have won 2, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Motor Lublin and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Motor Lublin 2-1 Pogon Szczecin.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Motor Lublin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Motor Lublin 50%, Pogon Szczecin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Motor Lublin) and 50% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Motor Lublin keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Motor Lublin have failed to score in 33% of games; Pogon Szczecin in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Motor Lublin home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Motor Lublin play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Motor Lublin's recent matches and 50% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Motor Lublin vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Motor Lublin's recent games and 50% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Motor Lublin and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Motor Lublin have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Motor Lublin cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Pogon Szczecin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Motor Lublin beat Pogon Szczecin 4-2 at Arena Lublin, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.34 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.25 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Motor Lublin beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 0.85 / defence 1.27 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.83 / defence 1.07, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 39% | Draw 26% | Pogon Szczecin 35%, with Motor Lublin to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 38%, Pogon Szczecin 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Motor Lublin's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Motor Lublin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.