Legia Warszawa 2-1 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego plays host to Legia Warszawa versus Zaglebie Lubin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Legia Warszawa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Legia Warszawa have gone 2W 6D 2L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this season.
Zaglebie Lubin have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Legia Warszawa have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 4 meetings, with Zaglebie Lubin managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 3–0 with Legia Warszawa winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Legia Warszawa and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Legia Warszawa — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Zaglebie Lubin — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 54% versus Zaglebie Lubin 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 51% | Zaglebie Lubin 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.38 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 0.840 / defence 1.049 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.295 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.113. Zaglebie Lubin have an above-average attack strength of 1.295 — the away xG of 1.51 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 67 Legia Warszawa games / 67 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 33% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 39%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Zaglebie Lubin 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zaglebie Lubin are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 60% | Zaglebie Lubin 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 33% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.38 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 0.840 / def 1.049 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.295 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Zaglebie Lubin xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 25 May 2024 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Legia Warszawa 2 - 1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 33% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (4 meetings): Legia Warszawa 4W | Draws 0 | Zaglebie Lubin 0W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Legia Warszawa's attack at 0.84x the league average against Zaglebie Lubin's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Zaglebie Lubin's attack (1.29x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
33%
3.05
28%
3.51
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.89
1.51
Zaglebie Lubin xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
7%
13.84
10%
10.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.51 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Legia Warszawa come into this having played 67 games, going 34W 20D 13L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.37 PPG from 67 outings (25W 17D 25L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Legia Warszawa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Legia Warszawa's home form reads 19W 11D 3L across 33 games on their own ground, a 2.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 1.48 points per game from 33 outings (14W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.15 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Current Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 34W 20D 13L in their last 67 games (1.82 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 25W 17D 25L in their last 67 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 2.06 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Legia Warszawa go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Legia Warszawa won 0-3 on 3 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Legia Warszawa
0
Draws
1
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 9, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Legia Warszawa 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 61%, Zaglebie Lubin 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Legia Warszawa) and 58% (Zaglebie Lubin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 46% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Legia Warszawa's matches and 58% of Zaglebie Lubin's.
Do Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Legia Warszawa defy the odds to beat Zaglebie Lubin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.38 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.51 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.84 / defence 1.05 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.29 / defence 1.11, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 33% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 39%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Legia Warszawa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 51%, Zaglebie Lubin 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.37. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.