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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Legia Warszawa vs Wieczysta Kraków fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Wieczysta Kraków make the trip to Stadion Wojska Polskiego to face Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Legia Warszawa have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Legia Warszawa haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Legia Warszawa's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Wojska Polskiego this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.79 xG and Wieczysta Kraków 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.019 / defence 0.838 | Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.160. Data: 34 Legia Warszawa games / 0 Wieczysta Kraków games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 59% | Draw 25% | Wieczysta Kraków 16%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Wieczysta Kraków 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Legia Warszawa (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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