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Legia Warszawa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Slask Wroclaw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Legia Warszawa beat Slask Wroclaw 3-1 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.91 xG and Slask Wroclaw 0.83 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Legia Warszawa beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.27 / defence 0.94 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.76 / defence 1.11, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 63% | Draw 22% | Slask Wroclaw 16%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 50%, Slask Wroclaw 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.70 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights