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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Raków Częstochowa make the trip to Stadion Wojska Polskiego to face Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form

Legia Warszawa (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Legia Warszawa haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Legia Warszawa at Stadion Wojska Polskiego this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Raków Częstochowa have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Raków Częstochowa haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.10 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head ledger leans to Raków Częstochowa, who have claimed 5 wins from 10 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 4 draws.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Raków Częstochowa have won 5 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading & In-Play

Legia Warszawa — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).

Raków Częstochowa — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 56% versus Raków Częstochowa 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 41% | Raków Częstochowa 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.53 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.019 / defence 0.838 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.148 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.160. Data: 34 Legia Warszawa games / 34 Raków Częstochowa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 46% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 27%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Raków Częstochowa 3.70. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 50% | Raków Częstochowa 90% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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