Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Piast Gliwice make the trip to Stadion Wojska Polskiego to face Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 February 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Legia Warszawa (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa at Stadion Wojska Polskiego this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
Piast Gliwice's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Legia Warszawa's favour (2.20 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Legia Warszawa 3W, Piast Gliwice 5W, 2D.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Legia Warszawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 60% versus Piast Gliwice 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 42% | Piast Gliwice 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.67 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.190 / defence 0.807 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.986 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.306. Data: 43 Legia Warszawa games / 43 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 49% | Draw 31% | Piast Gliwice 20%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | Piast Gliwice 5.00. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Piast Gliwice lead the H2H ledger, but Legia Warszawa carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 50% | Piast Gliwice 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Wojska Polskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 49% | Draw 31% | Piast Gliwice 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.67 / Piast Gliwice 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.190 / def 0.807 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.986 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Piast Gliwice xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 49% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice?
Record (10 meetings): Legia Warszawa 3W | Draws 2 | Piast Gliwice 5W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Legia Warszawa's attack rating (1.19) and Piast Gliwice's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Piast Gliwice's attack (0.99x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
49%
2.06
31%
3.20
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.71
1.04
Piast Gliwice xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
4%
26.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.04 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Legia Warszawa's recent record stands at 17W 17D 9L from 43 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice, meanwhile, have gone 15W 9D 19L across 43 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Legia Warszawa against 1.26 for Piast Gliwice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Legia Warszawa have managed 10W 8D 3L from 21 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Piast Gliwice's away record stands at 7W 4D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.35 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 17W 17D 9L in their last 43 games (1.58 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 15W 9D 19L in their last 43 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.81 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Piast Gliwice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Legia Warszawa
2
Draws
5
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 3, Piast Gliwice have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Piast Gliwice 1-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 52%, Piast Gliwice 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Legia Warszawa) and 57% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Piast Gliwice in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 57% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 57% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.