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Prediction vindicated as Piast Gliwice edge out Legia Warszawa 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Piast Gliwice beat Legia Warszawa 0-1 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.21 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.24 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Legia Warszawa fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.83 / defence 0.89 against Piast Gliwice attack 1.16 / defence 0.89, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 34% | Draw 31% | Piast Gliwice 35%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 52%, Piast Gliwice 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.40 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights