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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Legia Warszawa and Lechia Gdansk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Legia Warszawa and Lechia Gdansk finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.65 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.06 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.81 / defence 0.77 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.11 / defence 1.27, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 49% | Draw 29% | Lechia Gdansk 22%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 52%, Lechia Gdansk 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.48 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights