Legia Warszawa 0-1 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lech Poznan at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lech Poznan make the trip to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 October 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Legia Warszawa have collected 1.12 PPG across 8 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 0D 5L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 1L across 3 games at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.12 — Legia Warszawa are significantly better at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Lech Poznan's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: D D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Lech Poznan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Lech Poznan have posted 2W 1D 1L from 4 away outings — 1.75 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Lech Poznan are the stronger side — 0.98 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.12). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Lech Poznan in 75%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Legia Warszawa half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Lech Poznan half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 50% versus Lech Poznan 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 50% | Lech Poznan 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.43 xG and Lech Poznan 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.054 / defence 1.226 | Lech Poznan attack 1.033 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.171. Data: 8 Legia Warszawa games / 10 Lech Poznan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 36% | Draw 25% | Lech Poznan 39%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Lech Poznan 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lech Poznan as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lech Poznan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 67% | Lech Poznan 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 36% | Draw 25% | Lech Poznan 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.43 / Lech Poznan 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.054 / def 1.226 | Lech Poznan attack 1.033 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.202 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Lech Poznan xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan?
Legia Warszawa 0 - 1 Lech Poznan.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 36% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 3W-0D-5L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Lech Poznan (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Legia Warszawa's attack rating (1.05) and Lech Poznan's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lech Poznan's attack (1.03x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 8/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
36%
2.75
25%
4.05
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.91
1.48
Lech Poznan xG
2.75
36%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
8%
12.12
9%
10.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.48 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 8 outings, Legia Warszawa have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 3W 0D 5L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lech Poznan's form line: 5W 2D 1L from 8 games, 2.12 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-W. The sample for Lech Poznan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lech Poznan are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Legia Warszawa.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Legia Warszawa have posted 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Legia Warszawa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lech Poznan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 2.38 scored and 0.62 conceded.
Defensively: Lech Poznan in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 0D 5L in their last 8 games (1.12 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 5W 2D 1L in their last 8 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Lech Poznan away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 2.00 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lech Poznan won 4-0 on 26 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lech Poznan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Legia Warszawa
5
Draws
4
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 1, Lech Poznan have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Lech Poznan 4-0 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Legia Warszawa, 67% for Lech Poznan — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Legia Warszawa and 67% for Lech Poznan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Lech Poznan in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Lech Poznan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Legia Warszawa's games and 67% of Lech Poznan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Legia Warszawa's matches and 67% of Lech Poznan's.
Do Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lech Poznan in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lech Poznan edge out Legia Warszawa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lech Poznan beat Legia Warszawa 0-1 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 11, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.43 xG and Lech Poznan 1.48 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Legia Warszawa fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.05 / defence 1.23 against Lech Poznan attack 1.03 / defence 1.12, drawn from 8/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 36% | Draw 25% | Lech Poznan 39%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 50%, Lech Poznan 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.