Legia Warszawa 0-1 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lech Poznan make the trip to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 May 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Legia Warszawa have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lech Poznan's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Lech Poznan have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Lech Poznan are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Legia Warszawa lead 1W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 2–5 with Lech Poznan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Legia Warszawa half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Lech Poznan half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 61% versus Lech Poznan 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 53% | Lech Poznan 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.41 xG and Lech Poznan 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 0.945 / defence 0.836 | Lech Poznan attack 1.061 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.256. Data: 64 Legia Warszawa games / 65 Lech Poznan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 44% | Draw 27% | Lech Poznan 30%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Lech Poznan 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lech Poznan (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 70% | Lech Poznan 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 44% | Draw 27% | Lech Poznan 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.41 / Lech Poznan 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 0.945 / def 0.836 | Lech Poznan attack 1.061 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Lech Poznan xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 11 May 2025 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan?
Legia Warszawa 0 - 1 Lech Poznan.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 44% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan?
Record (7 meetings): Legia Warszawa 1W | Draws 4 | Lech Poznan 2W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Lech Poznan (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Legia Warszawa's attack rating (0.94) and Lech Poznan's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lech Poznan's attack (1.06x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 64/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
44%
2.29
27%
3.72
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.52
1.11
Lech Poznan xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
14%
6.98
7%
13.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.6 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.11 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 64 outings, Legia Warszawa have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 30W 19D 15L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Lech Poznan's form line: 33W 14D 17L from 64 games, 1.77 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Legia Warszawa against 1.77 for Lech Poznan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Legia Warszawa have posted 1.84 PPG from 31 outings (16W 9D 6L).
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 10W 10D 11L from 31 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lech Poznan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 1.70 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lech Poznan in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Current Season
Lech Poznan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 30W 19D 15L in their last 64 games (1.70 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 33W 14D 17L in their last 64 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Lech Poznan away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.84 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lech Poznan won 4-0 on 26 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lech Poznan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Legia Warszawa
5
Draws
4
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 1, Lech Poznan have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Lech Poznan 4-0 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 64%, Lech Poznan 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Legia Warszawa) and 52% (Lech Poznan).
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan in 36%; Lech Poznan in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Lech Poznan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Legia Warszawa's games and 52% of Lech Poznan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 52% of Lech Poznan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Lech Poznan tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Lech Poznan in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lech Poznan defy the odds to beat Legia Warszawa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lech Poznan beat Legia Warszawa 0-1 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.41 xG and Lech Poznan 1.11 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Legia Warszawa fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.94 / defence 0.84 against Lech Poznan attack 1.06 / defence 0.96, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 44% | Draw 27% | Lech Poznan 30%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Lech Poznan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 53%, Lech Poznan 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.70 PPG, Lech Poznan 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lech Poznan win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.