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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Korona Kielce defy the odds to beat Legia Warszawa 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Korona Kielce beat Legia Warszawa 1-2 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.12 xG and Korona Kielce 1.01 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Korona Kielce outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.81 / defence 0.88 against Korona Kielce attack 0.93 / defence 0.86, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 37% | Draw 33% | Korona Kielce 31%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Korona Kielce win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 50%, Korona Kielce 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Korona Kielce's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.40 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Korona Kielce win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights