Legia Warszawa 5-1 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Legia Warszawa host Jagiellonia at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 12 May 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Legia Warszawa at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jagiellonia — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Jagiellonia's form when playing away from home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Legia Warszawa at 1.80 PPG versus Jagiellonia's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Legia Warszawa have won 2, Jagiellonia 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 5–2 with Legia Warszawa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Legia Warszawa trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Jagiellonia trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 51% versus Jagiellonia 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 52% | Jagiellonia 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.90 xG and Jagiellonia 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.341 / defence 1.070 | Jagiellonia attack 1.177 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.009. Legia Warszawa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.341 — their λ of 1.90 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 65 Legia Warszawa games / 65 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 51% | Draw 24% | Jagiellonia 25%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Jagiellonia 4.00. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 70% | Jagiellonia 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Friday 12 May 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 51% | Draw 24% | Jagiellonia 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.90 / Jagiellonia 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.341 / def 1.070 | Jagiellonia attack 1.177 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.009 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Jagiellonia xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 12 May 2023 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia?
Legia Warszawa 5 - 1 Jagiellonia.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 51% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia?
Record (3 meetings): Legia Warszawa 2W | Draws 1 | Jagiellonia 0W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Jagiellonia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Legia Warszawa's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
51%
1.96
24%
4.11
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
3.17
1.27
Jagiellonia xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
15%
6.66
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
4%
27.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.2 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.27 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Legia Warszawa's recent record stands at 30W 13D 22L from 65 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Jagiellonia, meanwhile, have gone 18W 26D 21L across 65 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Legia Warszawa on 1.58 PPG, Jagiellonia on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Legia Warszawa have managed 20W 5D 7L from 32 games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — Legia Warszawa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Jagiellonia's away record stands at 5W 15D 12L across 32 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.31 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 68%.
Last 65 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Current Season
Jagiellonia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 30W 13D 22L in their last 65 games (1.58 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 18W 26D 21L in their last 65 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Jagiellonia away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 2.03 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2023, when Legia Warszawa won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Legia Warszawa
5
Draws
2
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 3, Jagiellonia have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Jagiellonia 2-2 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Jagiellonia see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 50%, Jagiellonia 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Legia Warszawa) and 50% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Jagiellonia in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Legia Warszawa's games and 66% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 50% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Legia Warszawa run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Jagiellonia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Jagiellonia 5-1 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.90 xG and Jagiellonia 1.27 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Legia Warszawa beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.34 / defence 1.07 against Jagiellonia attack 1.18 / defence 1.09, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 51% | Draw 24% | Jagiellonia 25%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 52%, Jagiellonia 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.58 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.