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Legia Warszawa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over GKS Katowice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Legia Warszawa beat GKS Katowice 3-1 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.49 xG and GKS Katowice 0.98 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Legia Warszawa beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.80 / defence 0.86 against GKS Katowice attack 0.91 / defence 1.18, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 49% | Draw 27% | GKS Katowice 25%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 53%, GKS Katowice 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

GKS Katowice's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.61 PPG, GKS Katowice 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights