Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 28 as Legia Warszawa welcome Cracovia Krakow to Stadion Wojska Polskiego. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 April 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Legia Warszawa have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Stadion Wojska Polskiego this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
Cracovia Krakow — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cracovia Krakow away from home this season: 0W 6D 4L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Legia Warszawa have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Legia Warszawa, 5 for Cracovia Krakow and 1 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Legia Warszawa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 58% versus Cracovia Krakow 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 40% | Cracovia Krakow 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.66 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.284 / defence 0.793 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.721 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.303. Legia Warszawa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.284 — their λ of 1.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Legia Warszawa's defence rating of 0.793 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Legia Warszawa games / 40 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 57% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 14%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.75 | Draw 3.33 | Cracovia Krakow 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Legia Warszawa (57%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 50% | Cracovia Krakow 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Wojska Polskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 57% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.66 / Cracovia Krakow 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.284 / def 0.793 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.721 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Cracovia Krakow xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 10 April 2027 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 57% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 14% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (10 meetings): Legia Warszawa 4W | Draws 1 | Cracovia Krakow 5W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Legia Warszawa's attack at 1.28x the league average against Cracovia Krakow's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.6%), 2-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
57%
1.77
30%
3.36
14%
7.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.41
0.74
Cracovia Krakow xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
7.28
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
3%
38.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 11.2 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 0.74 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Legia Warszawa have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 15W 16D 9L record — W-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 11W 17D 12L from 40 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Legia Warszawa on 1.52 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Legia Warszawa have posted 1.85 PPG from 20 outings (10W 7D 3L).
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 4W 8D 8L from 20 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.12 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 15W 16D 9L in their last 40 games (1.52 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 11W 17D 12L in their last 40 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.85 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2022, when Legia Warszawa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Legia Warszawa
1
Draws
5
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 4, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 50%, Cracovia Krakow 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Legia Warszawa) and 50% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 45%; Cracovia Krakow in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 40% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 50% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.