Lechia Gdansk 1-0 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lechia Gdansk at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Plock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Plock meet at Stadion Energa Gdańsk in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Monday 2 August 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Lechia Gdansk (all games): 0W 1D 0L across 1 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Lechia Gdansk have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wisla Plock's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Lechia Gdansk's 1.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Wisla Plock's 0.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.23 xG and Wisla Plock 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.962 / defence 1.150 | Wisla Plock attack 0.697 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.139 / away 1.197. Data: 1 Lechia Gdansk games / 1 Wisla Plock games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 38% | Draw 37% | Wisla Plock 25%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 2.63 | Draw 2.70 | Wisla Plock 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lechia Gdansk as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Energa Gdańsk • Kick-off: Monday 2 Aug 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 38% | Draw 37% | Wisla Plock 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 48% | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.23 / Wisla Plock 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.962 / def 1.150 | Wisla Plock attack 0.697 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.139 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Wisla Plock xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 2 August 2021 at Stadion Energa Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Plock?
Lechia Gdansk 1 - 0 Wisla Plock.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Energa Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Plock part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 38% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 25% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Plock?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Plock in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D. Wisla Plock (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lechia Gdansk's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Wisla Plock's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Wisla Plock's attack (0.70x) against Lechia Gdansk's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
38%
2.62
37%
2.71
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.19
0.96
Wisla Plock xG
2.62
38%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
7%
13.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.8 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 0.96 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lechia Gdansk come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 1D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D. It's still early in the season for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Wisla Plock sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lechia Gdansk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Wisla Plock — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Wisla Plock in 0%.
Last 1 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Early Season
Wisla Plock
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wisla Plock won 3-0 on 17 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lechia Gdansk have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Wisla Plock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Lechia Gdansk
1
Draws
3
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Plock?
From 6 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, Wisla Plock have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Wisla Plock 1-0 Lechia Gdansk.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Plock?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Wisla Plock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 0% of Wisla Plock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 0% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lechia Gdansk edge out Wisla Plock 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk beat Wisla Plock 1-0 at Stadion Energa Gdańsk, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.23 xG and Wisla Plock 0.96 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Wisla Plock landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Wisla Plock attack 0.70 / defence 1.12, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 38% | Draw 37% | Wisla Plock 25%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 0%, Wisla Plock 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Lechia Gdansk arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Lechia Gdansk conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.