Lechia Gdansk 1-1 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Widzew Łódź at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 10 as Lechia Gdansk welcome Widzew Łódź to Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk. Kick-off is set for Friday 27 September 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lechia Gdansk have gone 2W 2D 5L from 9 outings — a 0.89 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.22 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lechia Gdansk have posted 1W 1D 2L at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
Widzew Łódź — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Widzew Łódź have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Widzew Łódź's 1.80 PPG return is 0.91 points per game ahead of Lechia Gdansk's 0.89 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Lechia Gdansk, 0 for Widzew Łódź and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lechia Gdansk in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lechia Gdansk 78% and Widzew Łódź 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 56% | Widzew Łódź 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 0.96 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.680 / defence 1.168 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.102 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.000. Lechia Gdansk's attack strength of 0.680 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Lechia Gdansk games / 43 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 28% | Draw 28% | Widzew Łódź 44%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Widzew Łódź 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Widzew Łódź are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Lechia Gdansk 50% | Widzew Łódź 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk • Kick-off: Friday 27 Sep 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 28% | Draw 28% | Widzew Łódź 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Lechia Gdansk 0.96 / Widzew Łódź 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.680 / def 1.168 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.102 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Widzew Łódź xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 27 September 2024 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź?
Lechia Gdansk 1 - 1 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 28% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Widzew Łódź?
Record (2 meetings): Lechia Gdansk 1W | Draws 1 | Widzew Łódź 0W.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Widzew Łódź in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lechia Gdansk's attack at 0.68x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Widzew Łódź's attack versus Lechia Gdansk's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
28%
3.62
28%
3.54
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.25
1.29
Widzew Łódź xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
8%
13.11
17%
5.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 13.6 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.29 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, Lechia Gdansk have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 2W 2D 5L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Widzew Łódź's form line: 4W 3D 2L from 9 games, 1.67 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Widzew Łódź are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lechia Gdansk.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lechia Gdansk have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Widzew Łódź's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.33 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 4W 3D 2L in their last 9 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Lechia Gdansk's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 1.00 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Lechia Gdansk's record when hosting Widzew Łódź specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Lechia Gdansk
2
Draws
2
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Widzew Łódź?
From 6 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, Widzew Łódź have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Widzew Łódź 3-1 Lechia Gdansk.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lechia Gdansk tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 50%, Widzew Łódź 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Lechia Gdansk) and 50% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 50% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 50% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lechia Gdansk and Widzew Łódź share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 10, as Lechia Gdansk and Widzew Łódź drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 0.96 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.29 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 0.68 / defence 1.17 against Widzew Łódź attack 1.10 / defence 0.92, drawn from 9/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 28% | Draw 28% | Widzew Łódź 44%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 56%, Widzew Łódź 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Widzew Łódź arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.