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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Lechia Gdansk edge out Widzew Łódź 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lechia Gdansk beat Widzew Łódź 2-1 at Polsat Plus Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.90 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.38 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 0.95 / defence 1.16 against Widzew Łódź attack 1.04 / defence 1.23, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 48% | Draw 25% | Widzew Łódź 27%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 60%, Widzew Łódź 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 1.08 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lechia Gdansk win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights