Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Lechia Gdansk's attack at 0.58x the league average against Slask Wroclaw's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slask Wroclaw's attack (0.84x) against Lechia Gdansk's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 17/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
27%
3.74
28%
3.56
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.25
1.31
Slask Wroclaw xG
3.74
27%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
7%
13.86
18%
5.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 13.9 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.31 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.