Lechia Gdansk 3-1 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Piast Gliwice make the trip to Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk to face Lechia Gdansk in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 April 2025 at 13:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lechia Gdansk have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lechia Gdansk's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Piast Gliwice (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Piast Gliwice's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Lechia Gdansk, 1.30 for Piast Gliwice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Lechia Gdansk 2W, Piast Gliwice 2W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Lechia Gdansk half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lechia Gdansk 62% versus Piast Gliwice 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 52% | Piast Gliwice 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 0.89 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.783 / defence 1.119 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.881 / defence 0.759. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.235. Lechia Gdansk's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Piast Gliwice's defence strength of 0.759 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 29 Lechia Gdansk games / 63 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 27% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 44%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Piast Gliwice 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lechia Gdansk 40% | Piast Gliwice 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Apr 2025, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 27% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Lechia Gdansk 0.89 / Piast Gliwice 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.783 / def 1.119 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.881 / def 0.759 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Piast Gliwice xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 26 April 2025 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice?
Lechia Gdansk 3 - 1 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 27% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice?
Record (5 meetings): Lechia Gdansk 2W | Draws 1 | Piast Gliwice 2W.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lechia Gdansk's attack rating (0.78) and Piast Gliwice's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Piast Gliwice's attack (0.88x) against Lechia Gdansk's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 29/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
27%
3.71
29%
3.41
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.11
1.22
Piast Gliwice xG
3.71
27%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
8%
12.53
18%
5.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 14.8 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.22 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lechia Gdansk's recent record stands at 7W 6D 16L from 29 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Piast Gliwice, meanwhile, have gone 9W 11D 9L across 29 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Lechia Gdansk against 1.31 for Piast Gliwice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lechia Gdansk have managed 5W 2D 7L from 14 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Piast Gliwice's away record stands at 5W 4D 5L across 14 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.03 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Current Season
Piast Gliwice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 7W 6D 16L in their last 29 games (0.93 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 9W 11D 9L in their last 29 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Piast Gliwice's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 1.21 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Lechia Gdansk or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lechia Gdansk have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Piast Gliwice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Lechia Gdansk
2
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice?
From 8 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 4, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 1-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice?
Lechia Gdansk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lechia Gdansk see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 43%, Piast Gliwice 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Lechia Gdansk and 21% for Piast Gliwice.
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk have failed to score in 29% of games; Piast Gliwice in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 43% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 21% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lechia Gdansk cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Piast Gliwice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk beat Piast Gliwice 3-1 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 0.89 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.22 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 0.78 / defence 1.12 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.88 / defence 0.76, drawn from 29/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 27% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 44%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Lechia Gdansk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 52%, Piast Gliwice 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 0.93 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lechia Gdansk win broke the near-deadlock. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.