Lechia Gdansk 1-0 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Jagiellonia (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lechia Gdansk face Jagiellonia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Jagiellonia travel to Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk to take on Lechia Gdansk. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 March 2025, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lechia Gdansk stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lechia Gdansk's home record at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Jagiellonia — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Jagiellonia have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Jagiellonia are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Jagiellonia, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Lechia Gdansk.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 2–3 with Jagiellonia winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Jagiellonia have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Lechia Gdansk trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Jagiellonia trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lechia Gdansk 64% and Jagiellonia 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 52% | Jagiellonia 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 0.87 xG and Jagiellonia 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.647 / defence 1.183 | Jagiellonia attack 1.038 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.195. Lechia Gdansk's attack strength of 0.647 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Lechia Gdansk games / 59 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 22% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 51%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 4.55 | Draw 3.70 | Jagiellonia 1.96. Jagiellonia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lechia Gdansk 40% | Jagiellonia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 22% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Lechia Gdansk 0.87 / Jagiellonia 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.647 / def 1.183 | Jagiellonia attack 1.038 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Jagiellonia xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia?
Lechia Gdansk 1 - 0 Jagiellonia.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 22% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 51% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia?
Record (5 meetings): Lechia Gdansk 0W | Draws 2 | Jagiellonia 3W.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Jagiellonia (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lechia Gdansk's attack rating (0.65) and Jagiellonia's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Lechia Gdansk's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
22%
4.48
27%
3.77
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.34
1.47
Jagiellonia xG
4.48
22%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
5%
19.44
21%
4.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 14.2 | 10.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.47 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lechia Gdansk come into this having played 25 games, going 5W 6D 14L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 2.04 PPG from 25 outings (15W 6D 4L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.20 PPG clear of Lechia Gdansk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lechia Gdansk's home form reads 3W 2D 7L across 12 games on their own ground, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 1.75 points per game from 12 outings (6W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.88 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Jagiellonia in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 5W 6D 14L in their last 25 games (0.84 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 15W 6D 4L in their last 25 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Jagiellonia away?
Jagiellonia's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 0.92 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Lechia Gdansk or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Mar 2026, when Lechia Gdansk won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lechia Gdansk's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Lechia Gdansk
2
Draws
4
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia?
From 8 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, Jagiellonia have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 3-0 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lechia Gdansk see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 42%, Jagiellonia 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Lechia Gdansk) and 50% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia in 33%; Lechia Gdansk have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Jagiellonia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 58% of Jagiellonia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 50% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lechia Gdansk defy the odds to beat Jagiellonia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk beat Jagiellonia 1-0 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 0.87 xG and Jagiellonia 1.47 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jagiellonia landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 0.65 / defence 1.18 against Jagiellonia attack 1.04 / defence 0.94, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 22% | Draw 27% | Jagiellonia 51%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Lechia Gdansk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 52%, Jagiellonia 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Lechia Gdansk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.