Lechia Gdansk 1-1 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lechia Gdansk at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 20 as Lechia Gdansk welcome Cracovia Krakow to Polsat Plus Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 February 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Lechia Gdansk — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lechia Gdansk have posted 5W 2D 3L at Polsat Plus Arena — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On current form, Lechia Gdansk have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Lechia Gdansk, 3 for Cracovia Krakow and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lechia Gdansk in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lechia Gdansk 70% and Cracovia Krakow 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 64% | Cracovia Krakow 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.66 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.321 / defence 1.100 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.889 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.236. Lechia Gdansk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.321 — their λ of 1.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 53 Lechia Gdansk games / 53 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 47% | Draw 25% | Cracovia Krakow 27%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Cracovia Krakow 3.70. Lechia Gdansk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lechia Gdansk at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lechia Gdansk 80% | Cracovia Krakow 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena • Kick-off: Friday 6 Feb 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 47% | Draw 25% | Cracovia Krakow 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.66 / Cracovia Krakow 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.321 / def 1.100 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.889 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Cracovia Krakow xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 6 February 2026 at Polsat Plus Arena.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow?
Lechia Gdansk 1 - 1 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 47% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (7 meetings): Lechia Gdansk 3W | Draws 1 | Cracovia Krakow 3W.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lechia Gdansk's attack at 1.32x the league average against Cracovia Krakow's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Lechia Gdansk's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
47%
2.11
25%
3.96
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.87
1.21
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
19%
5.27
Win to Nil
14%
7.05
5%
19.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.4 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.21 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Lechia Gdansk have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 18W 11D 24L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 22W 15D 16L from 53 games, 1.53 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-W. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lechia Gdansk on 1.23 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lechia Gdansk have posted 1.54 PPG from 26 outings (12W 4D 10L).
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 12W 5D 9L from 26 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.58 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Cracovia Krakow in 66%.
Last 53 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 18W 11D 24L in their last 53 games (1.23 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 22W 15D 16L in their last 53 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Cracovia Krakow's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 1.54 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2021, when Lechia Gdansk won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lechia Gdansk's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Lechia Gdansk
2
Draws
3
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow?
From 8 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 3, Cracovia Krakow have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 1-1 Cracovia Krakow.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 62%, Cracovia Krakow 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Lechia Gdansk) and 62% (Cracovia Krakow). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Cracovia Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Lechia Gdansk's games and 62% of Cracovia Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Lechia Gdansk's matches and 62% of Cracovia Krakow's.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow finished level at 1-1 at Polsat Plus Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.66 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.21 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.32 / defence 1.10 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.89 / defence 0.80, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 47% | Draw 25% | Cracovia Krakow 27%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 64%, Cracovia Krakow 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 1.23 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.