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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 8

Kick-off

Fri 12 Sep 2025

19:30

Venue

Stadion Poznan

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Lech Poznan Win

52%

Lech Poznan

1.93

23%

Draw

4.34

25%

Zaglebie Lubin

3.97

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.7%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.7%

Home win

1 – 0

8.9%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.81

Lech Poznan xG

Total xG

3.01

1.20

Zaglebie Lubin xG

52%
23%
25%
Lech PoznanDrawZaglebie Lubin

1.93

52%

Home win

4.34

23%

Draw

3.97

25%

Away win

Goals Markets

80%

Over 1.5

1.25

20%

Under 1.5

5.00

58%

Over 2.5

1.72

42%

Under 2.5

2.38

36%

Over 3.5

2.78

64%

Under 3.5

1.56

19%

Over 4.5

5.26

81%

Under 4.5

1.23

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

58%

BTTS Yes

1.71

42%

BTTS No

2.41

Clean Sheet

30%

Lech Poznan

3.32

16%

Zaglebie Lubin

6.12

Win to Nil

16%

Lech Poznan

6.41

4%

Zaglebie Lubin

24.25

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.9 5.9 3.5 1.4 0.4 0.1
1 8.9 10.7 6.4 2.6 0.8 0.2
2 8.1 9.7 5.8 2.3 0.7 0.2
3 4.9 5.9 3.5 1.4 0.4 0.1
4 2.2 2.6 1.6 0.6 0.2
5 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.811
λ Away (xG) 1.199
Total xG 3.010
League avg home goals 1.596
League avg away goals 1.190
Lech Poznan attack strength 1.141
Lech Poznan defence strength 1.063
Zaglebie Lubin attack strength 0.948
Zaglebie Lubin defence strength 0.995
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 39 / 40