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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Lech Poznan run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Widzew Łódź.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lech Poznan beat Widzew Łódź 4-1 at Enea Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 2.03 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.03 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Lech Poznan beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 1.30 / defence 0.84 against Widzew Łódź attack 1.02 / defence 1.09, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 60% | Draw 21% | Widzew Łódź 18%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 48%, Widzew Łódź 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lech Poznan's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lech Poznan 1.75 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lech Poznan win broke the near-deadlock. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights