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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 7

Kick-off

Sat 5 Sep 2026

17:00

Venue

Stadion Poznan

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

NS

Most Likely Outcome

Lech Poznan Win

46%

Lech Poznan

2.17

24%

Draw

4.16

30%

Raków Częstochowa

3.35

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

9.8%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.1%

Home win

1 – 2

7.2%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.86

Lech Poznan xG

Total xG

3.33

1.47

Raków Częstochowa xG

46%
24%
30%
Lech PoznanDrawRaków Częstochowa

2.17

46%

Home win

4.16

24%

Draw

3.35

30%

Away win

Goals Markets

85%

Over 1.5

1.18

15%

Under 1.5

6.67

65%

Over 2.5

1.54

35%

Under 2.5

2.86

43%

Over 3.5

2.33

57%

Under 3.5

1.75

24%

Over 4.5

4.17

76%

Under 4.5

1.32

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

66%

BTTS Yes

1.52

34%

BTTS No

2.93

Clean Sheet

23%

Lech Poznan

4.36

16%

Raków Częstochowa

6.43

Win to Nil

11%

Lech Poznan

9.47

5%

Raków Częstochowa

21.51

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.6 5.3 3.9 1.9 0.7 0.2
1 6.6 9.8 7.2 3.5 1.3 0.4
2 6.2 9.1 6.7 3.3 1.2 0.4
3 3.8 5.6 4.2 2.0 0.8 0.2
4 1.8 2.6 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1
5 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.861
λ Away (xG) 1.473
Total xG 3.334
League avg home goals 1.527
League avg away goals 1.160
Lech Poznan attack strength 1.241
Lech Poznan defence strength 1.105
Raków Częstochowa attack strength 1.149
Raków Częstochowa defence strength 0.982
Data phase PrevSeason
Games used (H/A) 34 / 34