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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 23

Kick-off

Sun 1 Mar 2026

16:30

Venue

Stadion Poznan

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Lech Poznan Win

40%

Lech Poznan

2.49

27%

Draw

3.66

32%

Raków Częstochowa

3.08

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.4%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

8.9%

Home win

1 – 0

8.3%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.56

Lech Poznan xG

Total xG

2.94

1.38

Raków Częstochowa xG

40%
27%
32%
Lech PoznanDrawRaków Częstochowa

2.49

40%

Home win

3.66

27%

Draw

3.08

32%

Away win

Goals Markets

79%

Over 1.5

1.27

21%

Under 1.5

4.76

56%

Over 2.5

1.79

44%

Under 2.5

2.27

34%

Over 3.5

2.94

66%

Under 3.5

1.52

17%

Over 4.5

5.88

83%

Under 4.5

1.20

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

60%

BTTS Yes

1.65

40%

BTTS No

2.53

Clean Sheet

25%

Lech Poznan

3.98

21%

Raków Częstochowa

4.74

Win to Nil

10%

Lech Poznan

9.89

7%

Raków Częstochowa

14.61

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.3 7.3 5.1 2.3 0.8 0.2
1 8.3 11.4 7.9 3.6 1.3 0.3
2 6.4 8.9 6.1 2.8 1.0 0.3
3 3.3 4.6 3.2 1.5 0.5 0.1
4 1.3 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1
5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.556
λ Away (xG) 1.381
Total xG 2.937
League avg home goals 1.394
League avg away goals 1.161
Lech Poznan attack strength 1.244
Lech Poznan defence strength 1.088
Raków Częstochowa attack strength 1.094
Raków Częstochowa defence strength 0.897
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 56 / 56