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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 12

Kick-off

Sun 19 Oct 2025

13:45

Venue

Stadion Poznan

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Lech Poznan Win

51%

Lech Poznan

1.97

24%

Draw

4.19

25%

Pogon Szczecin

3.95

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.6%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.6%

Home win

1 – 0

8.6%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.83

Lech Poznan xG

Total xG

3.06

1.23

Pogon Szczecin xG

51%
24%
25%
Lech PoznanDrawPogon Szczecin

1.97

51%

Home win

4.19

24%

Draw

3.95

25%

Away win

Goals Markets

81%

Over 1.5

1.23

19%

Under 1.5

5.26

59%

Over 2.5

1.69

41%

Under 2.5

2.44

37%

Over 3.5

2.70

63%

Under 3.5

1.59

19%

Over 4.5

5.26

81%

Under 4.5

1.23

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

60%

BTTS Yes

1.67

40%

BTTS No

2.50

Clean Sheet

29%

Lech Poznan

3.43

16%

Pogon Szczecin

6.22

Win to Nil

15%

Lech Poznan

6.75

4%

Pogon Szczecin

24.57

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.7 5.8 3.6 1.5 0.5 0.1
1 8.6 10.6 6.5 2.7 0.8 0.2
2 7.8 9.6 5.9 2.4 0.8 0.2
3 4.8 5.9 3.6 1.5 0.5 0.1
4 2.2 2.7 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1
5 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.827
λ Away (xG) 1.233
Total xG 3.060
League avg home goals 1.627
League avg away goals 1.236
Lech Poznan attack strength 1.102
Lech Poznan defence strength 1.131
Pogon Szczecin attack strength 0.882
Pogon Szczecin defence strength 1.019
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 44 / 45