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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 21

Kick-off

Sun 15 Feb 2026

16:30

Venue

Stadion Poznan

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Piast Gliwice Win

36%

Lech Poznan

2.80

26%

Draw

3.82

38%

Piast Gliwice

2.63

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.7%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 2

8.5%

Away win

2 – 1

8.2%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.54

Lech Poznan xG

Total xG

3.13

1.59

Piast Gliwice xG

36%
26%
38%
Lech PoznanDrawPiast Gliwice

2.80

36%

Home win

3.82

26%

Draw

2.63

38%

Away win

Goals Markets

82%

Over 1.5

1.22

18%

Under 1.5

5.56

60%

Over 2.5

1.67

40%

Under 2.5

2.50

38%

Over 3.5

2.63

62%

Under 3.5

1.61

21%

Over 4.5

4.76

79%

Under 4.5

1.27

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

64%

BTTS Yes

1.57

36%

BTTS No

2.76

Clean Sheet

20%

Lech Poznan

4.91

22%

Piast Gliwice

4.65

Win to Nil

7%

Lech Poznan

13.75

8%

Piast Gliwice

12.20

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.4 7.0 5.5 2.9 1.2 0.4
1 6.7 10.7 8.5 4.5 1.8 0.6
2 5.2 8.2 6.5 3.5 1.4 0.4
3 2.6 4.2 3.4 1.8 0.7 0.2
4 1.0 1.6 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1
5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.536
λ Away (xG) 1.591
Total xG 3.127
League avg home goals 1.425
League avg away goals 1.188
Lech Poznan attack strength 1.121
Lech Poznan defence strength 1.242
Piast Gliwice attack strength 1.078
Piast Gliwice defence strength 0.961
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 54 / 54