🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Lechia Gdansk cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Lech Poznan.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lechia Gdansk beat Lech Poznan 1-3 at Stadion Poznan, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 2.34 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.57 xG, a combined 3.91. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lech Poznan fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Lechia Gdansk outscored their 1.57 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 1.18 / defence 1.14 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.14 / defence 1.24, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 54% | Draw 21% | Lechia Gdansk 25%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Lechia Gdansk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 61%, Lechia Gdansk 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lech Poznan's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Lechia Gdansk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights