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Prediction vindicated as Lech Poznan edge out Cracovia Krakow 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lech Poznan beat Cracovia Krakow 2-1 at Enea Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 2.13 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.07 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 1.35 / defence 0.81 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.07 / defence 1.07, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 62% | Draw 20% | Cracovia Krakow 18%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 52%, Cracovia Krakow 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lech Poznan's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.31. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights