ŁKS Łódź 3-2 Puszcza Niepołomice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Puszcza Niepołomice at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ŁKS Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz plays host to ŁKS Łódź versus Puszcza Niepołomice in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 3 March 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
ŁKS Łódź's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ŁKS Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ŁKS Łódź at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Puszcza Niepołomice have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D L D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Puszcza Niepołomice away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Puszcza Niepołomice arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for ŁKS Łódź, 1 for Puszcza Niepołomice and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Puszcza Niepołomice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
ŁKS Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Puszcza Niepołomice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ŁKS Łódź 48% versus Puszcza Niepołomice 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ŁKS Łódź 48% | Puszcza Niepołomice 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ŁKS Łódź 1.22 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.675 / defence 1.378 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.949 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.189. ŁKS Łódź's attack strength of 0.675 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Puszcza Niepołomice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.271 — this is suppressing ŁKS Łódź's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 ŁKS Łódź games / 21 Puszcza Niepołomice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 28% | Draw 29% | Puszcza Niepołomice 43%. Fair-value odds: ŁKS Łódź 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Puszcza Niepołomice 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Puszcza Niepołomice at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Puszcza Niepołomice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: ŁKS Łódź 40% | Puszcza Niepołomice 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ŁKS Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Mar 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 28% | Draw 29% | Puszcza Niepołomice 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG ŁKS Łódź 1.22 / Puszcza Niepołomice 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.675 / def 1.378 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.949 / def 1.271 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Puszcza Niepołomice (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
ŁKS Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ŁKS Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice kick off?
ŁKS Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What was the final score in ŁKS Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
ŁKS Łódź 3 - 2 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Where is ŁKS Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What competition is ŁKS Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice part of?
ŁKS Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win ŁKS Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our statistical model gives ŁKS Łódź a 28% chance of winning, Puszcza Niepołomice a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Puszcza Niepołomice the favourite.
Will both teams score in ŁKS Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both ŁKS Łódź and Puszcza Niepołomice will score (BTTS).
Will ŁKS Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between ŁKS Łódź and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Record (1 meetings): ŁKS Łódź 0W | Draws 0 | Puszcza Niepołomice 1W.
What form are ŁKS Łódź and Puszcza Niepołomice in?
ŁKS Łódź (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from ŁKS Łódź's attack rating (0.68) and Puszcza Niepołomice's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Puszcza Niepołomice's attack (0.95x) against ŁKS Łódź's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 22/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Puszcza Niepołomice Win
28%
3.58
29%
3.47
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
ŁKS Łódź xG
Total xG
2.77
1.55
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
6%
16.97
13%
7.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ŁKS Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are ŁKS Łódź and Puszcza Niepołomice expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for ŁKS Łódź and 1.55 for Puszcza Niepołomice, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for ŁKS Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
ŁKS Łódź's recent record stands at 2W 4D 15L from 21 games, a 0.48 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for ŁKS Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Puszcza Niepołomice, meanwhile, have gone 5W 7D 9L across 21 games — 1.05 PPG, with W-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Puszcza Niepołomice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Puszcza Niepołomice by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over ŁKS Łódź heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, ŁKS Łódź have managed 1W 4D 5L from 10 games — 0.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Puszcza Niepołomice's away record stands at 1W 2D 7L across 10 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Puszcza Niepołomice's season.
Attack vs Defence
ŁKS Łódź are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Puszcza Niepołomice are on 1.33 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Puszcza Niepołomice in 71%.
Last 21 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ŁKS Łódź
Blended
Puszcza Niepołomice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ŁKS Łódź and Puszcza Niepołomice in coming into this match?
ŁKS Łódź have gone 2W 4D 15L in their last 21 games (0.48 PPG), while Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 5W 7D 9L in their last 21 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ŁKS Łódź at home or Puszcza Niepołomice away?
ŁKS Łódź's home record (0.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ŁKS Łódź at home: 0.70 PPG; Puszcza Niepołomice away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
ŁKS Łódź
0
Draws
1
Puszcza Niepołomice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ŁKS Łódź and Puszcza Niepołomice?
From 2 meetings on record, ŁKS Łódź have won 1, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did ŁKS Łódź and Puszcza Niepołomice last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2024, when ŁKS Łódź 3-2 Puszcza Niepołomice.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
ŁKS Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ŁKS Łódź 40%, Puszcza Niepołomice 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (ŁKS Łódź) and 50% (Puszcza Niepołomice).
On the defensive side: ŁKS Łódź have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ŁKS Łódź home games / Puszcza Niepołomice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ŁKS Łódź play Puszcza Niepołomice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of ŁKS Łódź's games and 70% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ŁKS Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of ŁKS Łódź's recent games and 50% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ŁKS Łódź and Puszcza Niepołomice tend to score early?
ŁKS Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Puszcza Niepołomice in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as ŁKS Łódź defy the odds to beat Puszcza Niepołomice 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ŁKS Łódź beat Puszcza Niepołomice 3-2 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ŁKS Łódź 1.22 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 1.55 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. ŁKS Łódź beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ŁKS Łódź attack 0.68 / defence 1.38 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.95 / defence 1.27, drawn from 22/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ŁKS Łódź 28% | Draw 29% | Puszcza Niepołomice 43%, with Puszcza Niepołomice to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual ŁKS Łódź win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ŁKS Łódź 48%, Puszcza Niepołomice 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ŁKS Łódź's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Puszcza Niepołomice arrived the stronger side — 1.05 PPG against 0.48. Form was overturned, with ŁKS Łódź winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. ŁKS Łódź (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm. Puszcza Niepołomice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.