ŁKS Łódź 2-3 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lech Poznan at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this ŁKS Łódź vs Lech Poznan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 29 as ŁKS Łódź welcome Lech Poznan to Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, ŁKS Łódź have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz, ŁKS Łódź have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lech Poznan stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Lech Poznan away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lech Poznan are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for ŁKS Łódź, 1 for Lech Poznan and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 1–3 with Lech Poznan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
ŁKS Łódź in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Lech Poznan in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ŁKS Łódź 50% versus Lech Poznan 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ŁKS Łódź 54% | Lech Poznan 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ŁKS Łódź 1.29 xG and Lech Poznan 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.950 / defence 1.411 | Lech Poznan attack 0.834 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.100. Data: 28 ŁKS Łódź games / 62 Lech Poznan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 35% | Draw 30% | Lech Poznan 35%. Fair-value odds: ŁKS Łódź 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Lech Poznan 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: ŁKS Łódź 60% | Lech Poznan 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ŁKS Łódź vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 35% | Draw 30% | Lech Poznan 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG ŁKS Łódź 1.29 / Lech Poznan 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.950 / def 1.411 | Lech Poznan attack 0.834 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
ŁKS Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Lech Poznan xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ŁKS Łódź vs Lech Poznan kick off?
ŁKS Łódź vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What was the final score in ŁKS Łódź vs Lech Poznan?
ŁKS Łódź 2 - 3 Lech Poznan.
Where is ŁKS Łódź vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What competition is ŁKS Łódź vs Lech Poznan part of?
ŁKS Łódź vs Lech Poznan is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win ŁKS Łódź vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives ŁKS Łódź a 35% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in ŁKS Łódź vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both ŁKS Łódź and Lech Poznan will score (BTTS).
Will ŁKS Łódź vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between ŁKS Łódź and Lech Poznan?
Record (1 meetings): ŁKS Łódź 0W | Draws 0 | Lech Poznan 1W.
What form are ŁKS Łódź and Lech Poznan in?
ŁKS Łódź (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Lech Poznan (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates ŁKS Łódź's attack at 0.95x the league average against Lech Poznan's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lech Poznan's attack versus ŁKS Łódź's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
35%
2.88
30%
3.32
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
ŁKS Łódź xG
Total xG
2.58
1.29
Lech Poznan xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
10%
10.49
10%
10.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ŁKS Łódź vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are ŁKS Łódź and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for ŁKS Łódź and 1.29 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for ŁKS Łódź vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
ŁKS Łódź's recent record stands at 5W 6D 17L from 28 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-W in the last five.
Lech Poznan, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 6L across 28 games — 1.71 PPG, with D-W-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lech Poznan by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over ŁKS Łódź heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, ŁKS Łódź have managed 4W 5D 5L from 14 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.75 PPG overall — ŁKS Łódź are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lech Poznan's away record stands at 4W 6D 4L across 14 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lech Poznan's season.
The Goals Picture
ŁKS Łódź are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 1.43 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Lech Poznan in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ŁKS Łódź
Current Season
Lech Poznan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ŁKS Łódź and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
ŁKS Łódź have gone 5W 6D 17L in their last 28 games (0.75 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 13W 9D 6L in their last 28 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ŁKS Łódź at home or Lech Poznan away?
Lech Poznan's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ŁKS Łódź at home: 1.21 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.29 PPG.
Have ŁKS Łódź or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
ŁKS Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ŁKS Łódź and Lech Poznan runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
ŁKS Łódź
0
Draws
2
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ŁKS Łódź and Lech Poznan?
From 2 meetings on record, ŁKS Łódź have won 0, Lech Poznan have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did ŁKS Łódź and Lech Poznan last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2024, when ŁKS Łódź 2-3 Lech Poznan.
Who has won more matches between ŁKS Łódź and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ŁKS Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ŁKS Łódź 57%, Lech Poznan 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (ŁKS Łódź) and 50% (Lech Poznan).
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan in 36%; ŁKS Łódź have failed to score in 36% of games; Lech Poznan in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ŁKS Łódź home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ŁKS Łódź play Lech Poznan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of ŁKS Łódź's recent matches and 50% of Lech Poznan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is ŁKS Łódź vs Lech Poznan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of ŁKS Łódź's recent games and 50% of Lech Poznan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ŁKS Łódź and Lech Poznan tend to score early?
ŁKS Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Lech Poznan in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lech Poznan edge out ŁKS Łódź 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lech Poznan beat ŁKS Łódź 2-3 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ŁKS Łódź 1.29 xG and Lech Poznan 1.29 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Lech Poznan outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ŁKS Łódź attack 0.95 / defence 1.41 against Lech Poznan attack 0.83 / defence 0.95, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ŁKS Łódź 35% | Draw 30% | Lech Poznan 35%, with ŁKS Łódź to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Lech Poznan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ŁKS Łódź 54%, Lech Poznan 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ŁKS Łódź's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result. ŁKS Łódź (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.