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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Korona Kielce and Wisla Plock share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Exbud Arena, Regular Season - 18, as Korona Kielce and Wisla Plock drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.12 xG and Wisla Plock 0.98 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 0.84 / defence 0.99 against Wisla Plock attack 0.83 / defence 0.81, drawn from 51/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 37% | Draw 34% | Wisla Plock 30%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 26% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 35%, Wisla Plock 18%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Korona Kielce's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Wisla Plock's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Korona Kielce 1.35 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights