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Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 9

Kick-off

Sat 19 Sep 2026

17:00

Venue

Exbud Arena

Competition

Ekstraklasa

Poland

Status

NS

Most Likely Outcome

Korona Kielce Win

40%

Korona Kielce

2.49

28%

Draw

3.59

32%

Raków Częstochowa

3.13

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.3%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

9.9%

Home win

2 – 1

8.8%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.43

Korona Kielce xG

Total xG

2.67

1.25

Raków Częstochowa xG

40%
28%
32%
Korona KielceDrawRaków Częstochowa

2.49

40%

Home win

3.59

28%

Draw

3.13

32%

Away win

Goals Markets

75%

Over 1.5

1.33

25%

Under 1.5

4.00

50%

Over 2.5

2.00

50%

Under 2.5

2.00

28%

Over 3.5

3.57

72%

Under 3.5

1.39

13%

Over 4.5

7.69

87%

Under 4.5

1.15

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

55%

BTTS Yes

1.82

45%

BTTS No

2.23

Clean Sheet

29%

Korona Kielce

3.48

24%

Raków Częstochowa

4.16

Win to Nil

12%

Korona Kielce

8.65

8%

Raków Częstochowa

13.01

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.9 8.6 5.4 2.2 0.7 0.2
1 9.9 12.3 7.7 3.2 1.0 0.2
2 7.0 8.8 5.5 2.3 0.7 0.2
3 3.3 4.2 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.1
4 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1
5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.425
λ Away (xG) 1.246
Total xG 2.671
League avg home goals 1.527
League avg away goals 1.160
Korona Kielce attack strength 0.950
Korona Kielce defence strength 0.935
Raków Częstochowa attack strength 1.149
Raków Częstochowa defence strength 0.982
Data phase PrevSeason
Games used (H/A) 34 / 34